Armenia after Nagorno-Karabakh: Domestic Politics and Geopolitics

Armenia is at a political and geopolitical inflection point after the September 2023 defeat of ethnic Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. Forced by months of Russian inaction and the degradation of the Russian army in Ukraine, Armenian senior officials today are questioning their basic assumptions on Russia as a reliable economic and security partner, although charting an alternative path remains daunting. Armenian society is faced with massive population displacement, continued economic turmoil, real and perceived threats of continued aggression and uncertainty about the country’s democratic future. How has Russia’s waning influence changed the geopolitical environment of the South Caucasus and Armenia’s place in it?  What domestic and humanitarian challenges lie ahead for the country?  What is the potential for continued domestic or regional instability? 

Paul Stronski teaches in the Security Studies program at Georgetown University, focusing primarily on Russia, Eurasia, and the eastern Mediterranean.  He has had extensive experience in government, academia and think tank research, having served for over eight years as a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, as Director for Russia and Central Asia on the National Security Council staff during the Obama administration, and as research analyst in the U.S. Department of State.  He has published and lectured widely on the history and politics of Russia, the South Caucasus and Central Asia.  He received his Ph.D. in History from Stanford University in 2003.