Europe-Russia: a lasting confrontation

European states expect the confrontation with Russia to last. And they are adjusting to a continued deterioration of relations with Moscow, short of armed conflict, as Moscow shows no sign of changing its position on Ukraine, Crimea, the status of the “in-between states” (Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia…) and European security more broadly. The new US administration will most likely fail to improve the West-Russia relationship, and maybe worsen it further if they overplay their hand. New governments in the Netherlands, France and Germany in 2017 will face limited options to start anew a serious dialogue with Vladimir Putin. The Russian president does not appear to be much in demand of a repaired partnership.

Marie Mendras is an expert at the Kennan Institute,  and a Professor at Sciences Po - Paris School of International Affairs.