Policy-making and Intelligence: A Cold War Story

Policy-making and Intelligence: A Cold War Story
Date
-
Event Sponsor
CREEES Center for Russian, East European & Eurasian Studies
Location
Encina Commons, Room 123

Secret intelligence is a given necessity in the international arena. But intelligence needs to be accurate, timely, and actionable. Not surprisingly, things sometimes go wrong. During the Cold War neither side had significant hard intelligence about the other's intentions. The gap was filled by assessments which were often distorted by groupthink, confirmation bias, and a failure of empathy.

Some claim that disaster was avoided in the Cold War because each side knew through its spies what the other was really thinking. Is this true or when it came to action, the judgments of individual leaders like Ronald Reagan and Gorbachev were far more important? Are intelligence agencies more capable than anyone else of foretelling the future?

Sir Rodric Braithwaite has served in HM Diplomatic Service, with postings in Jakarta, Warsaw, Moscow, Rome, Brussels (British delegation to the European Community) and Washington. From 1988-92 was Great Britain’s Ambassador in Moscow. Other appointments included Foreign Policy Adviser to the Prime Minister and Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee.

Sir Rodric has had a number of academic appointments, including time as a Visiting Fellow, All Souls College, University of Oxford; Honorary Fellow, Christ’s College, University of Cambridge; and as Visiting Fellow, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington. He was appointed Knight Grand Cross of the Order of St Michael and St George (GCMG) in 1994.

His books include, : Across the Moscow River: The World Turned Upside Down (2002); Moscow 1941: A City and Its People at War (2002); Afgantsy: The Russians in Afghanistan, 1979–89 (2011). He makes regular contributions to The Financial Times, The Guardian, The Observer, The Sunday Times, The New Statesman, Prospect Magazine, The Evening Standard, and Survival.

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