Drivers of Russian Strategy

Russian decision making, though at times characterized as tactical or perhaps opportunistic, reflects a strategic consensus with a discernible theory of victory. Russian grand strategy reflects more an evolution rather than a revolution in thinking, with continuity prevailing over change. Framed by enduring threat perceptions, the quest for a geopolitical space, and the ever present mismatch between Moscow's desired position in international politics versus its means to attain it. Conversely Russian strategy in conflict reflects considerable adaptation, while still leveraging hard military power, there is a tangible shift towards reasonable sufficiency and emergent strategy over more deliberate approaches.

Michael Kofman serves as Director of the Russia Studies Program at the CNA Corporation and a Fellow at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center in Washington, D.C. His research focuses on Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in the Russian armed forces, Russian military thought, and strategy. Previously he served at the National Defense University as a Program Manager and subject matter expert, advising senior military and government officials on issues in Russia and Eurasia. Mr. Kofman's other affiliations include being a Senior Editor at War on the Rocks, where he regularly authors articles on strategy, the Russian military, Russian decision making, and related foreign policy issues.